LeHah asked me to take a look over this thread.
(1) Could Tolwyn have known about the Nephilim back during the WC:IV era? While others here far more wiser about WC than myself would argue differently, part of me wants to say that within the scope of things, it could indeed be possible. When we play Prophecy and we look back to many of Tolwyn's speeches from WC:IV about the strong surviving and Confed needing to be prepared because we have no idea who will attack us next or when...it does seem like it could be foreboding or ominous. I firmly believe a fan fiction project could be written that could bridge just this kind of gap and have indeed considered it as a plot point for my own project, admittedly. What others feel is also indeed worth hearing at this point.
Yes, Tolwyn and the Confederation know about the Nephilim - this is discussed in the two novels published after Prophecy (Action Stations and False Colors). Both are, to some extent, platforms for making sense out of Tolwyn's actions in Wing Commander IV. In the former, Banbridge and Turner discuss a remote probe which has discovered a terrible warlike empire expanding from the other side of the galaxy. In the latter, Tolwyn himself justifies his actions by explaining (in internal dialogue) that there are more terrifying enemies moving towards the Confederation. The writer of the ICIS Manual also said, at the time, that it was meant to indicate that the Confederation knew more than they were saying about the aliens -- though this may simply refer to the fact that *Blair* knew basic facts about the threat when the Midway crew did not.
(2) Paladin...yeah, kind of strange that he'd just toss Blair to the dogs for biting his lip at that point, but to an extent, it makes some sense, I think. We're to assume here that Blair's gone completely off the radar and there's enough that's been going on and that Tolwyn could report on to seal the lid on him. Paladin and Blair go way back, but I also got the feeling Blair had kind of disappeared for years following the war. If he didn't charge in with something to say the second he entered the room, it adds suspicion and doubt as to why he was there to begin with. The whole last mission of Price of Freedom was a balsy gamble on Blair's part. To not have him charge ahead when he reaches the Assembly kind of defeats the purpose. There's too much at stake, too much to lose by not confronting Tolwyn right on the spot in front of everyone to condemn his words and actions. Paladin has to cater to the crowd...remember, up to this point Tolwyn's still a respected leader, so his word will carry more weight than Blair's unless Blair can level the playing field by showing the Assembly that he has something contrary worth contributing.
It's also important not to downplay the relationship between Paladin and Tolwyn. When Blair was just a boy, Paladin was Tolwyn's friend and protege -- though they are political opponents in WC4, the Senator owes his career to Tolwyn. Paladin got his start in covert operations from Tolwyn, and was his trusted lieutenant for many, many years.
Blair and Paladin were close friends, but that isn't the end of the universe (though Paladin does help him in the Senate in WC4 -- presumably because of evidence presented to him). As close as the two men are sometimes, Paladin is just as willing as Tolwyn to do things for the greater good at Blair's expense -- witness Angel, and not telling Blair about what happened. When Paladin and Tolwyn are having drinks at the ceremony for the Vesuvius, Tolwyn reports on Blair's defection. Paladin replies that Blair was "always a hothead". Taggart has his opinions, and they aren't necessarily that everything Blair does is right no matter what.
As for Blair not bringing evidence with him...at least in the scope of the game, did Blair even HAVE any tangible evidence?
Yes, he did -- remember, Vagabond died collecting classified communications that would help expose the conspiracy. He also had the biochemist's data disk, which included information on other aspects of the conspiracy -- including data on the Vesuvius and the Flash-Pak. Eisen took all this to the Confederation, and used it to secure the Mt. St. Helens. Presumably, Blair presented all of this to Paladin beforehand.
Also, lets take a moment for trivia and point out that the technical name for the Flash Pak is the "Internal Atmosphere Flash Ignition Bomb".
Okay, kewl. Am I correct in memory in that Mantu space was a long ways off from the Kilrathi border?
They left their border with the Kilrathi to face 'another threat', and were just returning at the end of the Terran-Kilrathi War. There was also a buffer of a thousand dead star systems, the former Hari Empire, between the Kilrathi and any other race. Here's 'all we know' about the Mantu, reposted:
The major conflict between the Empire of Kilrah and the Mantu began around 2429. Terran historians believe that it was borne out of Kilrathi aggression towards civilian Mantu ships. The Mantu, an paranoid, insular race of explorers and prospectors, reacted to these attacks with extreme prejudice, pursuing a major invasion of Kilrathi space. It was warfare on a scale unprecedented and overwhelming to the Kilrathi of the 25th century. The conflict ultimately ended around 2431 when the Mantu withdrew their forces to pursue warfare in another theater.
In the years that followed, the Kilrathi demonized the Mantu per their own sociological imperative. The Cult of Sivar religion, founded on the Prophecy of Sivar's threat that the species would be annihilated by Star Gods should they ever falter in battle, would not allow for a conflict to be so ignobly ended. The Kilrathi came to believe that the war was not over but rather that both sides were preparing for a second, prologned fight. In reality, the Mantu had offered no such threats and have not since shown any practical interest in continuing the conflict.
This belief, however, gained even more strength in 2598 when a border skrimish broke out between the two nations. The battle ended in another draw. At the same time, it further reinforced Kilrathi paranoia regarding the Mantu: during the fighting it became clear that Mantu technology had advanced more quickly than that of the Kilrathi. Overlooked entirely by the Kilrathi was the fact that they had again instigated the fighting - in the two and a half centuries since the close of the war there has not been a single recorded border violation on the part of the Mantu.
Details of the Mantu's 'other war' are scarce, save that it involved a neighboring race or races and that it lasted some 235 years, finally ending in 2666. The next year a long range probe informed Kilrathi leadership that the centuries old conflict had concluded with a Mantu victory. Two years later, similar reports claimed forces were being reapportioned along the Mantu-Kilrathi border. So, at the height of the Terran-Kilrathi War, an Empire honestly convinced it was threatened on two fronts prepared for the worst...
While "The Project" started before Tolwyn was a figurehead in it (LOAF, am I correct in saying this? I think this was mentioned in False Colors but its been years since I've read it), I do find some skepticism in that they wouldn't inform "the old man" about any intelligence they may have gathered.
This is correct, Tolwyn did not start the conspiracy.
Hmmm... but is there ever actually any event in any of the games (...before WC4)that would indicate that Tolwyn is indeed willing to sacrifice anyone like you guys suggest? I don't seem to recall any event that would make game Tolwyn so drastically different to novel Tolwyn.
Not in the games -- it comes from Wing Commander Academy (trading Blair and Grunt to get Thrakhath in Glory of Sivar... or his speech on this matter in Expendable.)
Did Forstchen make him the same villain in the WC4 novelization? (last one I still need to read) The End Run Tolwyn was made out to be a humanitarian who risked the Concordia and defied orders to give the Tarawa and her crew a fighting chance to make it back, when the game Tolwyn would have been content that the mission was accomplished, and congratulated them posthumously for a job well done.
The WC4 novel (and the two followups) certainly try to explain why Tolwyn went the way he did -- but they don't cover it up or change his actions at all.
As for the other books, Dr. Forstchen always likened Tolwyn to MacArthur -- if you liked him, you were fanatical about it and he would help your career. If you didn't, you really, really hated him. Bear was the former, Blair the latter. It's also important to note that the first set of books were written in the context of Special Operations 1 and 2... where Tolwyn is a good friend to even Blair (and especially Bear).
Also, take special note of WC2 itself... even when Tolwyn hates Blair, the crew of the Concordia rushes to the Admiral's defense. They all view him as an excellent commander. Pre-Malcolm McDowell Tolwyn was a bit more fleshed out...
However, Tolwyn's nebulous claims of species that make the "Kilrathi look like schoolyard bullies" doesn't really stick. Who are they? What information does he have beyond that? Apparently - nothing - because what else would be better to start another war than a forthcoming enemy?
I think the idea is that he believes the threat so terrifying that it can't be faced -- he doesn't even explain it to Bear when justifying the 'conspiracy' in False Colors -- he thinks about how he couldn't reveal it afterwards.