To war, or not to war?
*** To those who are pro-war and easily offended, I apologise, but please consider my words, I do not seek to change your minds yet I wish to give an explanation as to why I have changed my opinion ***
As the subject suggests, I have changed from a pro-war stance to an anti-war stance. Yes, now I am actually siding with the unclean, left-wing Arts students, who I loathe and despise, on this issue.
Why the great change you may ask? A considered, thoughtful, opinion. Over the last few months I have given a lot of thought to both sides of the argument, and unfortunately I have to side against my Prime Minister (I live in Australia, the true pinnacle of democracy and egalitarianism
) and therefore George Bush.
I used to think Saddam Hussein was a terrible leader. He still is, however I think a predictable foe such as him is better than the alternatives. I don't understand why Bush would want to alter the balance of power that exists in the Middle East.
The excuse that Saddam supports terror is utter nonsense. Yes, he would support terror for his own ends, but to ally himself to the likes of Osama bin Laden is suicide, and not in the sense that the US will attack him. Bin Laden is a religious fundamentalist. Religious fundamentalism is opposite to Saddam's aims. After all, he fought an eight year war with Iran to
oppose the spread of religious fundamentalism. Incidentally, he was given the support of the United States as Iraq helped to contain Iran's newfound religious zealotry. Even Mr Rumsfeld met with Hussein in the mid 1980's.
To support religious fundamentalism would see an erosion in Hussein's power in his police state. Power would flow away from him to the various clerics that would stand up and be counted. They would be the ones swaying the people's opinion. Hussein would never allow that to happen as it is paramount to his own survival, with or without US intervention.
If not fundamentalism, what of those weapons of mass destruction? Inspector Hans Blix has found bits and pieces around Iraq, but nothing that is terribly concrete evidence of any weapons of mass destruction program. There were a few chemical weapons around, yet nothing that could reach any Western ally, with the possible exception of Israel. However that is unlikely to be a threat as Israel has employed the use of Patriot missiles previously to defend its borders. So who
can Hussein attack and with what weapons? The answer is practically no one but his own people!
Would it not be better to go after North Korea, after all, they have their nuclear program up and running plus ICBM's with the possibility of hitting California. There's true mass destruction for you.
And really, from a Western perspective, why should we get rid of Saddam? What finally tilted my opinion against war was the footage I saw of an Arabian conference held recently where the Iraqi and Kuwaiti foreign ministers insulted each other. I was shocked to discover the only one wearing a suit was the Iraqi representative! The only person who was in Western 'dress' was the Iraqi!
To me it would seem that Iraq is more likely to be Westernised and thus rendered pacifist than any other Arab country. It follows that they would be more likely to embrace the freedoms that we in the West take for granted.
Is it for the people? If so, the US would have come good on its promise in 1992 that it would support a popular coup against Saddam. On a program I watched on Television once (and I believe produced by PBS or Channel 4), it was claimed 19 out of 25 Iraqi provinces revolted. However it was soon crushed as the promised American support was not forthcoming and the Iraqi Republican Guard routed the coup ringleaders.
Perhaps it is a war for oil? To all those who said that only 25% of the United States' oil comes from the Middle East may be right, but what they fail to realise is that the proportion would increase significantly if Iraq was administered by the US. Iraq has the second largest oil production capability in the world at the present time, second only to Saudi Arabia. If only Iraq's capability be opened up, oil prices would drastically fall, which would help the US economy become strong again.
We appear to be in a time similar to the stagflation of the 1970's, where the worldwide economy was in recession and no amount of easing monetary policy would help. We are nearly, if not at the lowest interest rates in over 40 years. The economy is still not improving. So, why don't we try to spend on war (the Keynesian approach) whilst reducing the cost of one of industry's predominant inputs, OIL!
Even assuming that only a quarter of the US' oil comes from the Middle East, the resulting influx of oil supply would break OPEC's stranglehold on prices. Iraq wont agree to OPEC's wishes, it would be under US administration! The cartel will be broken and they will all scramble to increase supply to make up for the shortfall in revenues, driving the oil price down further. What else could be better for the American economy.
I think this is really the United States, or more likely, the hawks in President Bush' cabinet trying to clean up their own mess. Many were around during Bush Senior's and Reagan's administrations and now wish to either cover up their involvement or support for Iraq. It should be noted that prior to the invasion of Kuwait in 1990, Iraqi oifficials asked for permission from the US. Surprise, surprise, tacit permission WAS given.
Many Iraqis would prefer not to go to war, just as much as everyone else in the Western world. They don't want to lose their existence, as meager as it is right now. They would like democracy too, as I remember reading in a local newspaper, an Iraqi in broken English was trying to explain to the reporter they like Americans and want 'British Parliamentary democracy". If we bomb them relentlessly, they will truly have nothing to lose and then will fight to the bitter end.
In closing, I leave you with this quote from Shakespeare's
The Merchant of Venice:
If you prick us do we not bleed? If you tickle us do we not laugh? If you poison us do we not die? And if you wrong us shall we not revenge?
Thank you for having the patience to listen to my rant. It is not quite eloquent but I tried my best in the short space of time. Also thanks to the admins for letting us have an off topic zone.