Eh eh... you're talking about the
Fermi Paradox $tormin...
Indeed, it summarizes into one simple question: "If aliens exist, how come we haven't heard/seen any of them yet?"...
In theory, the total number of civilizations able to communicate with us is given by the famous
Drake Equation:
N = R* × fp × ne × fl × fi × fc × L
Where,
N = The number of communicative civilizations
The number of civilizations in the Milky Way Galaxy whose radio emissions are detectable.
R* = The rate of formation of suitable stars
The rate of formation of stars with a large enough "habitable zone" and long enough lifetime to be suitable for the development of intelligent life.
fp = The fraction of those stars with planets
The fraction of Sun-like stars with planets is currently unknown, but evidence indicates that planetary systems may be common for stars like the Sun. more info
ne = The number of "earths" per planetary system
All stars have a habitable zone where a planet would be able to maintain a temperature that would allow liquid water. A planet in the habitable zone could have the basic conditions for life as we know it. more info
fl = The fraction of those planets where life develops
Although a planet orbits in the habitable zone of a suitable star, other factors are necessary for life to arise. Thus, only a fraction of suitable planets will actually develop life.
fi = The fraction life sites where intelligence develops
Life on Earth began over 3.5 billion years ago. Intelligence took a long time to develop. On other life-bearing planets it may happen faster, it may take longer, or it may not develop at all. For more information, please visit Dr. William Calvin's "The Drake Equation's fi"
fc = The fraction of planets where technology develops
The fraction of planets with intelligent life that develop technological civilizations, i.e., technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.
L = The "Lifetime" of communicating civilizations
The length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space.
(source:
http://www.seti-inst.edu/science/drake-bg.html )
The equation yields different results, depending on the scientists...
Some claim 10,000, others 50,000.... some even drop to 50!!!
But indeed, if there are
that many communicative civilizations in the universe.... how come we haven't seen trace of them yet?