I see what you mean! Williams and Mancini don't seem to be in a position where they know that Tolwyn has any connection to or knowledge of the conspiracy... but I think that's meant to tell us how relatively insignificant they are to the overall conspiracy. After all, even if Tolwyn were an arch enemy of what they were doing, the head conspirators would at least know he'd been approached and then threatened.
But what was Tolwyn doing, exactly? As they're trying to escape Baka Kar, Tolwyn has some inner monologue that sums up what they've accomplished, ending with "And the delay would ruin the Belisarius Group's timetable for precipitating a frontier crisis that could give them their excuse for grabbing power in the Confederation." So he is there actively opposing the immediate goal of Belisarius as understood by Williams and Mancini... but then at the at the very end of the book we find out Tolwyn is unexpectedly returning to Confed and that he has just been put in charge of the Strategic Readiness Agency.
He then has a conversation with Bear where he tries to recruit him one more time and explains: "Did you ever really wonder why I was out here? ... First-hand look at the situation and also to get out of the way for awhile while certain things clicked into place. Now they're in place." He also lets slip that "I resigned my commission and was following orders out here" which calls back the same reveal at the end of Fleet Action where we find out outraging the Kilrathi to the point of being court martialed had been intentional from the start.
Like his analogy, he has found this conspiracy and recognizes its value for his own goals - it has convinced important generals, judges, etc. that will let him do what he wants to do. And they want him! But their current plot isn't really useful to him. He has to stop/delay the immediate plot to incite a war because he can then step in and take charge of the whole thing, which he has already arranged to do once he puts the situation in the order he wants. He goes back to Earth now in charge of the fleet and says 'look, I'm now in a position to do what you want (retain military control/restart the war) and here's how we're going to do it...'.
I think the biggest confusion comes from the fact that we don't ever see anyone who is actually running the conspiracy (or whoever believes they're running it) and we don't get any confirmation where Tolwyn stands with them /during/ False Colors. SOMEONE is giving him orders to go off to the Landreich and supporting his career (saving him at the trial, putting him in charge of the SRA... maybe giving him Behemoth in the first place) but we don't know if that's... John Belisarius... or some other faction. But we know that Tolwyn is playing the situation to his benefit in a way he's not telling Bear. (The idea that there might be someone /above/ Tolwyn in the Black Lance conspiracy stuff is interesting and it's a darned shame Andrew Keith never got to write that book! He had wanted to follow False Colors with two sequels which probably would've made a lot of this clearer.)
Noticed while rereading the ending stuff:
Geoff Tolwyn x Shrek! (Bear /hasn't/ ever peeled an onion??)
I am so bereft at the fact that there are unlikely to be any more novels. I would have loved to seen a follow up to FC but even more so to Action Stations which I think added considerable dimensionality to Tolwyn, Richards, and Banbridge. Would happily crowd fundraise for that one!!
I agree with your last paragraph (pre-Shrek) about not seeing who is in charge/involved as being confusing, and more so about where Tolwyn stands with them during FC…or where he intends, at this point, to stand with them in the future. I think FC points to him NOT being involved at all at that point (as opposed to Mancini et al just not being in the know) given the following:
A) yes, he may want his best people on the Karga, but he sent Kevin there for fear and perhaps Jason too although I can’t support the latter. If he was involved at any level, I’m assuming there would be no need to threaten Kevin.
B) this quote from FC, Chapter 18: “Tolwyn was beginning to get a renewed faith in the loyalty and support of a good crew. The Belisarius Group had shaken that faith once, but Mjollnir's officers and spacers proved that not everyone was tainted with that kind of corruption.” That’s an internal monologue…sounds like the existence of the group really DID shake his faith and cause some trauma, and that therefore his hurt towards Dave Whittaker was also quite real (described by Tolwyn as even worse than when he lost his family…um, c’mon, REALLYdude??) and not just some crap he was giving Bear.
C) the last sentence of the quote you cited earlier from FC: “ "You see, my coming out here wasn't just a whim," he announced, "there was something else afoot. Call this a bit of a fact finding mission, an upfront look. /With the SRA I now have the data I need to block what others are planning to do."/”
I had assumed the “others” in this case were the Belisarius group…but perhaps it refers to the (admittedly idiotic) civilian government?
The biggest question (not confusion so much any more, just wondering) to me is the one you posed: what his plans were for the conspiracy moving forward. I agree with you (if I have understood your take correctly) that it seems likely and in character to plan to use Belisarius to his own ends, and it certainly seems that they are still supporting him, or else how does he step up to head of SRA? (““It occurred to Taggart, as he watched Tolwyn, that the admiral was the best politician of all of them. How else could the man—who'd nearly been cashiered after the Behemoth debacle—bounce back to run the Strategic Readiness Agency as his personal fiefdom? The man was a survivor, with more lives than a cat.”—POF). My only other thought would be if there would be the “some other faction” you mentioned; in fact, a SECOND conspiracy, one that was more focused directly on Black Lance, GE etc—that invisible leader you mentioned who may outrank even Tolwyn in it and be saving him in the meantime.
Although there is one piece of evidence you mentioned that I understood differently, the part towards the end of FC that reads: “Won't you get arrested?" "Hell, I resigned my commission and was following orders out here. They can't hold me on that."” I understood the following orders as “resigned, came out here, joined up, followed orders from Kruger/Richards” as opposed to “I followed someone’s orders to come out to the Landreich in the first place.” I can see how it can be read either way, though!
I also am very fascinated by the tragic hero/descent into madness aspect of the novels (which is why I’m now reading them in chronological order instead of publication order as I have in the past). I realize that’s been discussed ad naseaum here, but in rereading old posts I found this gem of yours, LOAF, that I think is the best description I’ve seen. You wrote: “He understands what Blair, in his stuggles, fails to: he is a ruined soul, the necessary sacrafice of so long war. He believes therefore that because he has already traded his humanity that he may break the rules as long as the government does not.” That goes well with the FC mid-book drinking he does before and after his convo with Bear (my kindle has frozen so I can’t find it but he talks about the fact that he knows he should have moral outrage about what he’s planning but it’s either disappeared or has been buried).
One other side-note: at the end of FC Bear describes that he and Tolwyn had gone out drinking at the nightclub the night before. I cannot for the life of me picture it lol.
